#1 Ohio State (30-3) vs. #16 Central Conn. State (22-11)
Do the Blue Devils of Central Connecticut State have any chance? Well..only if the whole Ohio State team falls ill moments before the tip. This game will be a blowout from start to finish. Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr. could probably take the Blue Devils themselves. Ohio state went 30-3 this year with no losses to unranked teams. Central Connecticut didn't even play a top 25 team and finished 22-11. Javier Mojica was the NEC MVP this year and should have a decent game but Ohio State will win easily here. Oden will approach 20 rebounds in this game as he seems to be doing more consistently as of late.
#8 Brigham Young (25-8) vs #9 Xavier (24-8)
I don't know that you'll find two more evenly matched teams in the tournament pairings. Both teams finished first in their respective conferences during the regular season and are touting pretty decent winning percentages. Xavier started off the year like a lukewarm bowl of soup. No one was really excited about it and they did not impress many people. About halfway through the season they really pulled it together as Drew Lavender began to play well again and the team as a whole stepped up defensively. Xavier needs to shoot well from outside to really run with the bigger teams. BYU on the other hand is an incredible success story if you look at their record from a couple of years ago. The program was a mess and they were lucky to win 10 games..now..they are 25 game winners in the Mountain West Conference. Keenan Young was the conference MVP and they team continues to improve. If the Cougars challenge the Musketeers shots and don't give them many open looks, I think BYU will be the team advancing at the final whistle. Should be an excellent game.
#5 Tennessee (22-10) vs. #12 Long Beach State (24-7)
This is another interesting pairing in which, statistically speaking, the 49ers of Long Beach State look like they should be the better team but remember they are from two vastly different conferences and that will even them out in my mind and should be a highly entertaining game. The 49ers are a run and gun team who has no hesitation in pushing the ball at every opportunity. This will tire any team out and if the team can't match up offensively...it can be lights out. On the other side of the court is Chris Lofton and a scrappy Vols team. Lofton can light it up from beyond the arc and has gone off in a couple of games late in the season scoring in the mid-30's in a couple of games. I think Tennessee will edge out the 49ers in a fast-paced and high scoring affair.
#4 Virginia (20-10) vs. #13 Albany (23-9)
How does this grab you? Virgnia tied UNC this year for the regular season conference title in the ACC. Not bad! Add to that a 4-1 record against top 25 teams this year and a backcourt that is as good as anyone in the tourney in Singletary and Reynolds who both average over 18 pts a game. Albany is back in the tournament for a second year in a row and with a nice record in the America East conference but they will not have what it takes to bump out the Cavs this year. Jamar Wilson has led the Great Danes again this year but for the second year in a row they should be seeing a first round exit again. Cavaliers by 10-15 points.
#6 Louisville (23-9) vs. #11 Stanford (18-12)
The Cardinals vs. the Cardinal...interesting. Louisville is a team who started off poorly this year but began to pull it together as the year progressed under Rick Pitino. Derek Caracter who didn't play in the first 16 games of the year because of "character" differences with Pitino has joined the flock in a productive manner and is contributing some much needed offense. Stanford on the other end of the court comes into the tournament battered, bruised, and ready to collapse. I can't see them managing much of a fight in this tournament based on their performance or lack thereof down the stretch. Louisville shouldn't have too much trouble. At a different time in the year it may have been a different story but it's tourney time and Stanford is not in good shape.
#3 Texas A&M (25-6) vs. #14 Pennsylvania (22-8)
The Aggies are very impressive this year and Acie Law IV is the reason behind that. They were ranked 7th nationally and outscore their opponents by an average of 17 points a game. This spells trouble for the Quakers of Pennsylvania out of the Ivy League. Pennsylvania is a great team in their conference but is 0-2 against top 25 teams and Texas A&M is definitely top 25. I think that the Aggies will run away with this one early and should make a run into the tournament until they hit Ohio State. If you haven't seen Acie Law play..tune in...especially if for some reason the game is close near the end...the guy is clutch!
#7 Nevada (28-4) vs. #10 Creighton (22-10)Nevada has one of the best records in the country but is coming out of the Western Athletic Conference and hasn't played anyone significant. But they have been dominant in the WAC. This game could be a good one as well since the Bluejays of Creighton are no slouched either. Creighton played man-to-man defense in the last stretch of the season and did some serious damage to opponents scoring ability. I don't know that this will be as effective against the Wolf Pack though because if Nick Fazekas gets one to one attention and gets a lot of touches...it's over for Creighton. Fazekas averages 2o and 10 for the pack and he carries the team...if somehow they can shut him down...it may be a different story but until that happens...I give Nevada the edge in this one.
#2 Memphis (30-3) vs. #15 North Texas (23-10)
The Tigers are a mighty presence in the Conference USA this year going undefeated and ending with an overall 30-3 record. They outscore their opponents by about 17 a game and are currently riding a 22 game winning streak. They have many guys who can contribute offensively and defensively and have done so. I don't know what else really needs to be said except lookout North Texas..you ain't the only thing Mean in this game. The North Texas Mean Green have come a long way in a short period of time but this is as far as it goes. It will be interesting to see how wild these Tigers from Memphis really are in this tournament. I see a potential match up against Texas A&M which will definitely be a game worth watching.
Well...that was a lot more work than I though it would be. Writing up my predictions and mini-analyses for the first 32 games of a tournament took a long time. I hope it is of use to someone and I'm also interested in seeing how my predictions turn out. Any comments, questions, etc...feel free to leave em. Enjoy the tournament. I'll post matchups after the 1st and 2nd round next week. Enjoy the ball!
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